SF vs SEA prediction for July 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 4.1 - SF 4.3. SEA is favored with a 50.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
SEA
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
SF
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEASF
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 47.3% (2,808 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
246
SEA
246
Projected
SEA 4.1 — SF 4.3
Actual
SEA 0 — SF 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Webb R
SF
SI31%92 mph9% whiff
CH24%86 mph27% whiff
ST19%84 mph19% whiff
Bryan Woo R
SEA
FF48%96 mph22% whiff
SI17%96 mph8% whiff
SL15%87 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
70°F5 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.006 Total: 1.002
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-28.7% EV
-152
F5_ML HOME
-18.0% EV
-182
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-17.0% EV
+126
ML HOME
-15.1% EV
-185
F5_ML AWAY
+15.0% EV
+144
ML AWAY
+14.0% EV
+154
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.2 runs
41.9% win
SEA F5
2.2 runs
41.8% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
59.2%
YRFI
40.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.2
Over 0.5 HR
70%
Over 1.5 HR
34%
No HR
30%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Logan Webb
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Bryan Woo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto RF10-DAY-IL
Jonah Cox CF10-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP15-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Rob Refsnyder DH10-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Julio Rodriguez CF7-DAY IL
Emerson Hancock SPDAY-TO-DAY
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=347)
Model projects only 2.7% edge on over 7.0 (53.8% model prob vs market 51.1% implied). SF Away ML shows 2.9% edge (46.0% model prob, weak underdog value). All other markets negative or minimal edge. Park is suppressive (T-Mobile 0.89 PF), weather is cool (70.5°F, neutral wind). Both pitchers are strong (Bryce Miller B 0.652, Landen Roupp B- 0.431), suggesting low-scoring game. Model and market are aligned; no actionable edge. SKIP.
Key Factors
- MINIMAL EDGES: Largest edge is 2.9% on SF away ML (weak underdog value). Over 7.0 shows only 2.7% edge (53.8% vs 51.1%). All other bets negative.
- SUPPRESSIVE PARK: T-Mobile Park 0.89 PF is one of most suppressive parks in MLB. 11% run suppression is massive. Market likely sharper here.
- ELITE PITCHER MATCHUP: Bryce Miller (B 0.652, 30.2% K%, 9.3 K/9, elite stuff 0.55, elite command 0.777) vs Landen Roupp (B- 0.431, 25% K%, 10% K/9). Miller dominates stuff/command. This is excellent home pitcher vs solid away pitcher.
- Cool Weather: 70.5°F + neutral wind (1.9 mph in, minimal). No heat boost. Baseline run environment is LOWER than slate average.
- Market Respect: SF -102 (market 46.0% implied) vs model 46.0% — EXACT MATCH. Market is perfectly aligned with model on ML.
Risk Factors
- NO ACTIONABLE EDGE: Largest edge is 2.9% (SF ML), which is trivial. All other edges negative or minimal.
- YELLOW ZONE: Over 7.0 edge (2.7%) lands in YELLOW zone (50.1% WR). Break-even expectancy.
- NRFI Contradiction: 61.1% NRFI prob suggests quiet first inning, which should correlate with under lean. But model projects over. Data may be internally inconsistent.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 50.3%
-17.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-17.0 pts
Total
7.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →