STL vs COL prediction for September 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 6.9 - STL 6.8. COL is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.0. Model projects 13.7 total runs.
COL
6.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.0
STL
6.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLSTL
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
11.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (3,723 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
579
COL
579
Projected
COL 6.9 — STL 6.8
Actual
COL 6 — STL 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andre Pallante R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%95 mph12% whiff
SL30%88 mph30% whiff
SI18%95 mph9% whiff
Ryan Feltner R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%95 mph11% whiff
SL23%89 mph25% whiff
CH18%85 mph44% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
90°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.165 Total: 1.083
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.36ERA
4.24FIP
8.10K/9
4.13BB/9
1.34WHIP
COL
4.52ERA
4.23FIP
7.72K/9
4.15BB/9
1.49WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
4.0 runs
46.1% win
COL F5
3.9 runs
43.0% win
F5 Total
7.9
NRFI
39.1%
YRFI
60.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.55
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
STL8 injured
Masyn Winn SS10-DAY-IL
Andre Pallante SP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
JJ Wetherholt 2B10-DAY-IL
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Kyle Karros 3B7-DAY IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Freeland SP15-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.