STL vs COL prediction for September 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 6.3 - STL 5.9. COL is favored with a 58.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 12.2 total runs.
COL
6.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
STL
5.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLSTL
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.1% (3,747 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
468
COL
468
Projected
COL 6.3 — STL 5.9
Actual
COL 10 — STL 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%94 mph11% whiff
SL26%86 mph36% whiff
CU17%80 mph38% whiff
Mason Adams R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%93 mph22% whiff
SI28%92 mph4% whiff
CU17%82 mph57% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
92°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.125 Total: 1.062
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.37ERA
4.25FIP
8.10K/9
4.10BB/9
1.34WHIP
COL
4.54ERA
4.25FIP
7.69K/9
4.13BB/9
1.48WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
3.3 runs
38.0% win
COL F5
3.9 runs
50.9% win
F5 Total
7.3
NRFI
39.3%
YRFI
60.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.55
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
STL7 injured
Masyn Winn SS10-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
JJ Wetherholt 2B10-DAY-IL
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
Peter Strzelecki RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
COL8 injured
Willi Castro 2B10-DAY-IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Freeland SP15-DAY-IL
Kyle Karros 3B7-DAY IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.