TB vs HOU prediction for July 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 3.8 - TB 4.2. TB is favored with a 51.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
HOU
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
TB
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUTB
+1.5
Run Line (HOU)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.7% (2,777 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
HOU
246
Projected
HOU 3.8 — TB 4.2
Actual
HOU 2 — TB 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
R TBD
TB
Peter Lambert R
HOU
FF30%94 mph16% whiff
CH23%87 mph36% whiff
SL18%86 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Minute Maid Park
94°F1 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.035 Total: 1.017
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.5% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-25.6% EV
-105
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+15.6% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-11.8% EV
-120
ML HOME
-7.4% EV
-116
NRFI NRFI
+5.4% EV
+104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.4 runs
45.0% win
HOU F5
2.1 runs
40.0% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
54.7%
YRFI
45.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.97
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
71%
No HR
8%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Peter Lambert | Park: 0.99x
Yordan Alvarez HOU29.9%
ISO: 0.323 | Barrel: 13.8% | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Jonathan Aranda TB25.1%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Peter Lambert | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Peter Lambert
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Chandler Simpson LFDAY-TO-DAY
Jesse Scholtens RP15-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU8 injured
Bennett Sousa RP60-DAY-IL
Braden Shewmake SS10-DAY-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL
Raynel Delgado 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Kai-Wei Teng RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=302)
HARD BLOCK (-2): This game has DATA INTEGRITY FAILURE. HOU away pitcher is listed as 'TBD' in the simulation. We cannot evaluate the game without knowing the away starter. This is unacceptable. Additionally, HOU has multiple injuries (Carlos Correa 60-day IL ankle, Jeremy Pena 10-day IL calf, Braden Shewmake 10-day IL thigh) that compromise both defense and offense. TB bullpen is unknown (recent usage patterns not provided). Peter Lambert (3.79 ERA, C+ grade) at home vs UNKNOWN away pitcher — impossible to evaluate. SKIP this game entirely due to data corruption.
Key Factors
- Away pitcher TBD — cannot evaluate starter quality
- HOU injuries: Correa (60-day IL), Pena (10-day IL), Shewmake (10-day IL) — defensive and offensive impact
Risk Factors
- Cannot place bet without known starter
TBD PITCHERDATA INTEGRITY FAILURELINEUP INJURIES IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 51.4%
-37.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.5 pts
Total
9.0
+15.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →