TB vs TEX prediction for September 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 3.3 - TB 4.3. TB is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
TEX
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TB
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXTB
+1.5
Run Line (TEX)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (3,723 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
TEX
135
Projected
TEX 3.3 — TB 4.3
Actual
TEX 6 — TB 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nick Martinez R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI31%92 mph8% whiff
CH27%78 mph29% whiff
FC21%89 mph11% whiff
Trevor Williams R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF39%90 mph20% whiff
ST26%78 mph36% whiff
SI18%88 mph4% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
96°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.056 Total: 1.028
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.57ERA
3.88FIP
8.86K/9
2.78BB/9
1.14WHIP
TEX
4.28ERA
4.45FIP
8.49K/9
3.77BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.4 runs
50.0% win
TEX F5
1.7 runs
32.2% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
57.4%
YRFI
42.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Nathan Eovaldi SP15-DAY-IL
Robert Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Cole Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Peyton Gray RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.