Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals prediction for October 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Cincinnati Bengals 21.7 - Jacksonville Jaguars 23.6. Jacksonville Jaguars is favored with a 56.3% win probability. The spread is -2.5 and the total is 52.0.
Cincinnati Bengals
21.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 52.0
Jacksonville Jaguars
23.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
Cincinnati BengalsJacksonville Jaguars
-2.5
Spread (Cincinnati Bengals)
52.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.9% (387 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Jacksonville Jaguars
162431
Cincinnati Bengals
142229
Market Lines
Spread
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
Total
52.0
Game Conditions
Mostly Clear
70°F1 mph wind
Model Edge
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NFL Football Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NFL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NFL 2026 season report card.