New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills prediction for October 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Buffalo Bills 28.3 - New England Patriots 21.4. Buffalo Bills is favored with a 69.2% win probability. The spread is -7.0 and the total is 49.5.
Buffalo Bills
28.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 49.5
New England Patriots
21.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
Buffalo BillsNew England Patriots
-7.0
Spread (Buffalo Bills)
49.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.8% (387 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
New England Patriots
142129
Buffalo Bills
212836
Market Lines
Spread
Buffalo Bills -7.0
Total
49.5
Game Conditions
Overcast
66°F10 mph wind
Model Edge
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NFL Football Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NFL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NFL 2026 season report card.