FINAL: CGY 3 — ANA 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CGY 3.01 - ANA 3.56 (ANA at 50.1% win probability). The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.5.
CGY
3.01
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
ANA
3.56
Projected Score
Win Probability
CGYANA
-1.5
Spread (CGY)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
ANA W5CGY L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.4% (1,412 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
ANA
2.53.64.6
CGY
1.93.04.1
Projected
CGY 3.01 — ANA 3.56
Actual
CGY 3 — ANA 5
Pick Results
Over 6.5totalWIN+0.63u
Game Odds
CGY ML
-141
ANA ML
+124
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
CGY Edge
-8.6%
ANA Edge
+5.5%
Projected Total
6.56
+0.06 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Lukas Dostal
30-203.56 GAA87.2% SV
Dustin Wolf
23-293.64 GAA87.0% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 40.1% – 41.7% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
The model's only positive edge is ANA +125 (50.1% vs 44.4%, +5.7 pts), which is the poison away-dog category. ANA is on a back-to-back with an unconfirmed goalie, Pinnacle steamed toward CGY (-124 to -139), and Wolf is hot (.936 over L3), so the market is right and CGY itself shows no model edge (-7.4).
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ANA 50.1%
-8.6 pts
Spread
-1.5
-8.6 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NHL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NHL 2026 season report card.