FINAL: BUF 5 — CBJ 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BUF 3.62 - CBJ 2.82 (BUF at 57.7% win probability). The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.5.
BUF
3.62
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
CBJ
2.82
Projected Score
Win Probability
BUFCBJ
-1.5
Spread (BUF)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.3% (1,412 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
CBJ
1.72.83.9
BUF
2.53.64.7
Projected
BUF 3.62 — CBJ 2.82
Actual
BUF 5 — CBJ 2
Pick Results
Over 6.5totalWIN+0.63u
Game Odds
BUF ML
-168
CBJ ML
+150
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
BUF Edge
-5.0%
CBJ Edge
+2.3%
Projected Total
6.44
-0.06 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Jet Greaves
26-193.22 GAA88.1% SV
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
22-93.50 GAA87.0% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 61.0% – 62.6% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
The only model edge is CBJ +150 (+2.3 pts, below noise) on an away dog playing a back-to-back against a rested BUF. Both starters are confirmed and weak (Greaves.883, Luukkonen.874), and the line is flat. BUF -170 has no model edge either (57.7% vs 62.9%).
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BUF 57.7%
-5.0 pts
Spread
-1.5
-5.0 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NHL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NHL 2026 season report card.