FINAL: MIN 4 — SJS 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIN 4.06 - SJS 2.48 (MIN at 66.5% win probability). The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.5.
MIN
4.06
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
SJS
2.48
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINSJS
-1.5
Spread (MIN)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SJS L5MIN W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.5% (1,412 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
SJS
1.42.53.6
MIN
3.04.15.1
Projected
MIN 4.06 — SJS 2.48
Actual
MIN 4 — SJS 1
Pick Results
Over 6.5totalLOSS-0.63u
Game Odds
MIN ML
-277
SJS ML
+240
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
MIN Edge
-6.9%
SJS Edge
+4.0%
Projected Total
6.55
+0.05 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Yaroslav Askarov
21-203.29 GAA88.7% SV
Jesper Wallstedt
18-92.06 GAA92.0% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 73.5% – 74.9% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
MIN is the right side (Wallstedt.919-.920 confirmed, MIN L5 4-1, SJS L5 1-4 with 1.4 GF), but the market already prices it at about 71% no-vig versus the model's 66.5%, so ML at -270 is -EV (-6.4 pts). The SJS +230 dog is the poison category, and the line has been flat.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 66.5%
-6.9 pts
Spread
-1.5
-6.9 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NHL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NHL 2026 season report card.