Argentina vs Spain prediction for July 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Spain 1.96 - Argentina 1.32. Spain is favored with a 34.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.3..
Spain
1.96
Projected Goals
VS
3.3 total
Argentina
1.32
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
SpainDrawArgentina
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 73.5% (1,142 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Argentina
0.51.32.1
Spain
1.22.02.7
Expected Goals (xG)
Spain1.96
Argentina1.32
21.3Shots18.7
7.8On Target6.7
6.7Corners6.4
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
99.3%
Over 1.5
79.3%
Over 2.5
62.1%
Over 3.5
45.0%
Under 2.5
37.9%
BTTS
71.6%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.4%
1-0
6.7%
1-2
6.5%
Match Context
WCCritical
Spain
2.30
Draw
3.05
Argentina
3.69
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Spain 34.6%
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Total
3.3
+42.0 pts
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →