Arsenal vs Bayern Munich prediction for October 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Bayern Munich 1.69 - Arsenal 1.52. Bayern Munich is favored with a 41.0% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.2..
Bayern Munich
1.69
Projected Goals
VS
3.2 total
Arsenal
1.52
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Bayern MunichDrawArsenal
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 68.8% (1,756 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Arsenal
0.71.52.3
Bayern Munich
0.91.72.5
Projected
Bayern Munich 1.69 — Arsenal 1.52
Actual
Bayern Munich 2 — Arsenal 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Bayern Munich1.69
Arsenal1.52
17.0Shots15.2
6.4On Target5.3
5.9Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.5%
Over 1.5
83.5%
Over 2.5
62.2%
Over 3.5
39.9%
Under 2.5
37.8%
BTTS
54.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.1%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
8.0%
2-2
6.7%
1-0
6.3%
Match Context
UCLHigh
Bayern Munich
2.29
Draw
3.80
Arsenal
3.05
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.