Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inter Milan prediction for October 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Inter Milan 2.55 - Shakhtar Donetsk 1.04. Inter Milan is favored with a 68.3% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.6..
Inter Milan
2.55
Projected Goals
VS
3.6 total
Shakhtar Donetsk
1.04
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Inter MilanDrawShakhtar Donetsk
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 82.4% (1,756 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Shakhtar Donetsk
0.31.01.8
Inter Milan
1.82.53.3
Projected
Inter Milan 2.55 — Shakhtar Donetsk 1.04
Actual
Inter Milan 1 — Shakhtar Donetsk 0
Expected Goals (xG)
Inter Milan2.55
Shakhtar Donetsk1.04
18.4Shots14.0
6.8On Target5.0
6.0Corners5.4
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.7%
Over 1.5
87.9%
Over 2.5
69.6%
Over 3.5
48.3%
Under 2.5
30.4%
BTTS
70.6%
Most Likely Scores
2-1
9.8%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
8.3%
1-1
8.1%
3-0
8.0%
Match Context
UCLHigh
Inter Milan
1.25
Draw
6.77
Shakhtar Donetsk
10.37
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.