Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction for September 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Tottenham Hotspur 1.56 - Aston Villa 1.13. Tottenham Hotspur is favored with a 46.0% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.7..
Tottenham Hotspur
1.56
Projected Goals
VS
2.7 total
Aston Villa
1.13
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Tottenham HotspurDrawAston Villa
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.5% (1,497 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Aston Villa
0.41.11.9
Tottenham Hotspur
0.81.62.3
Projected
Tottenham Hotspur 1.56 — Aston Villa 1.13
Actual
Tottenham Hotspur 2 — Aston Villa 3
Expected Goals (xG)
Tottenham Hotspur1.56
Aston Villa1.13
16.3Shots16.8
5.5On Target6.2
5.6Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
94.5%
Over 1.5
75.6%
Over 2.5
49.6%
Over 3.5
28.0%
Under 2.5
50.3%
BTTS
50.2%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.0%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
8.3%
0-0
7.8%
Match Context
EPLCritical
Tottenham Hotspur
1.94
Draw
3.64
Aston Villa
4.08
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.