FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Monchengladbach prediction for September 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Borussia Monchengladbach 1.73 - FSV Mainz 05 1.99. FSV Mainz 05 is favored with a 41.9% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.7..
Borussia Monchengladbach
1.73
Projected Goals
VS
3.7 total
FSV Mainz 05
1.99
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Borussia MonchengladbachDrawFSV Mainz 05
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 77.0% (1,497 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
FSV Mainz 05
1.22.02.8
Borussia Monchengladbach
1.01.72.5
Expected Goals (xG)
Borussia Monchengladbach1.73
FSV Mainz 051.99
16.4Shots17.9
5.9On Target6.5
5.7Corners5.8
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.3%
Over 1.5
85.7%
Over 2.5
68.1%
Over 3.5
52.5%
Under 2.5
31.9%
BTTS
59.5%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
9.4%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
7.4%
2-2
7.4%
1-3
5.7%
Match Context
BUNMedium
Borussia Monchengladbach
3.61
Draw
3.06
FSV Mainz 05
2.23
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.