Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano prediction for October 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rayo Vallecano 1.33 - Athletic Bilbao 1.26. Rayo Vallecano is favored with a 37.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.6..
Rayo Vallecano
1.33
Projected Goals
VS
2.6 total
Athletic Bilbao
1.26
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Rayo VallecanoDrawAthletic Bilbao
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 70.0% (1,621 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Athletic Bilbao
0.51.32.0
Rayo Vallecano
0.61.32.1
Expected Goals (xG)
Rayo Vallecano1.33
Athletic Bilbao1.26
15.6Shots16.4
5.6On Target5.9
5.6Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
92.1%
Over 1.5
73.7%
Over 2.5
47.9%
Over 3.5
26.4%
Under 2.5
52.1%
BTTS
53.1%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.1%
1-0
9.5%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.0%
Match Context
LALMedium
Rayo Vallecano
2.79
Draw
3.30
Athletic Bilbao
2.69
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.