Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction for October 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects FSV Mainz 05 1.69 - Bayer Leverkusen 1.84. Bayer Leverkusen is favored with a 40.9% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.5..
FSV Mainz 05
1.69
Projected Goals
VS
3.5 total
Bayer Leverkusen
1.84
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
FSV Mainz 05DrawBayer Leverkusen
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 72.0% (1,621 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Bayer Leverkusen
1.11.82.6
FSV Mainz 05
0.91.72.5
Expected Goals (xG)
FSV Mainz 051.69
Bayer Leverkusen1.84
14.6Shots16.6
5.4On Target6.4
5.5Corners5.7
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.6%
Over 1.5
86.8%
Over 2.5
64.5%
Over 3.5
48.3%
Under 2.5
35.5%
BTTS
71.1%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
10.4%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
7.8%
2-2
7.2%
1-3
5.3%
Match Context
BUNMedium
FSV Mainz 05
3.14
Draw
3.92
Bayer Leverkusen
2.17
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.