Brentford vs Aston Villa prediction for October 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Aston Villa 1.34 - Brentford 1.44. Brentford is favored with a 39.9% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.8..
Aston Villa
1.34
Projected Goals
VS
2.8 total
Brentford
1.44
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Aston VillaDrawBrentford
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 72.0% (1,621 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Brentford
0.71.42.2
Aston Villa
0.61.32.1
Projected
Aston Villa 1.34 — Brentford 1.44
Actual
Aston Villa 2 — Brentford 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Aston Villa1.34
Brentford1.44
16.5Shots15.4
5.9On Target5.5
5.7Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
93.5%
Over 1.5
76.8%
Over 2.5
50.7%
Over 3.5
30.3%
Under 2.5
49.2%
BTTS
58.0%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.5%
1-2
8.7%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.1%
1-0
8.0%
Match Context
EPLMedium
Aston Villa
2.58
Draw
3.68
Brentford
2.70
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.