Chicago Fire vs New York City FC prediction for July 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects New York City FC 1.49 - Chicago Fire 1.45. New York City FC is favored with a 38.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.9..
New York City FC
1.49
Projected Goals
VS
2.9 total
Chicago Fire
1.45
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
New York City FCDrawChicago Fire
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.6% (1,164 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Chicago Fire
0.71.42.2
New York City FC
0.71.52.3
Expected Goals (xG)
New York City FC1.49
Chicago Fire1.45
18.8Shots15.7
6.8On Target5.6
6.0Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.1%
Over 1.5
77.4%
Over 2.5
54.0%
Over 3.5
41.8%
Under 2.5
46.0%
BTTS
58.5%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.4%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.4%
1-0
7.0%
0-1
6.8%
Match Context
MLSMedium
New York City FC
2.75
Draw
3.79
Chicago Fire
2.47
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Soccer 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Soccer 2026 season report card.