FINAL: Crystal Palace 4 — Lech Poznań 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Crystal Palace 2.1 - Lech Poznań 0.9 (Crystal Palace at 66.1% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.0..
Crystal Palace
2.1
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Lech Poznań
0.9
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Crystal PalaceDrawLech Poznań
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 76.9% (1,497 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Lech Poznań
0.10.91.7
Crystal Palace
1.32.12.9
Projected
Crystal Palace 2.1 — Lech Poznań 0.9
Actual
Crystal Palace 4 — Lech Poznań 0
Pick Results
Lech Poznań +1.25spreadLOSS-0.50u
Expected Goals (xG)
Crystal Palace2.10
Lech Poznań0.90
17.1Shots15.5
6.1On Target5.9
5.7Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.6%
Over 1.5
79.8%
Over 2.5
55.2%
Over 3.5
35.0%
Under 2.5
44.8%
BTTS
60.6%
Most Likely Scores
2-0
11.2%
1-1
10.5%
2-1
10.1%
1-0
9.9%
3-0
7.9%
Match Context
UELHigh
Crystal Palace
1.33
Draw
5.66
Lech Poznań
8.91
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Despite a massive 1.20 xG gap favoring Palace, the market (75.2%) is far more confident than our model (66.2%), a 9pp gap that historically signals the model is underpricing the favorite's true dominance rather than finding value.
Key Factors
- xG gap 1.20 (2.10 home vs 0.90 away) is the largest xG mismatch on the slate
- Market implied home prob 75.2% vs model 66.2% — market MORE bullish, not less, eliminating value
- Lech Poznań is a mid-table Polish side (16 pts) heavily overmatched by Premier League quality
Risk Factors
- Home ML historically weak: a supportive track record — even lopsided favorites lose value here
- Draw prob 19.2% still a live threat given soccer variance
- High confidence/edge picks are our historically worst-performing bucket (a supportive track record at 15-25% edge)
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Crystal Palace 66.1%
--
Total
3.0
+15.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.