FINAL: OFI Crete 2 — TSG Hoffenheim 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected OFI Crete 0.84 - TSG Hoffenheim 1.99 (TSG Hoffenheim at 65.5% win probability). Expected total goals: 2.8..
OFI Crete
0.84
Projected Goals
VS
2.8 total
TSG Hoffenheim
1.99
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
OFI CreteDrawTSG Hoffenheim
TSG Hoffenheim L5OFI Crete
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 87.2% (1,497 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
TSG Hoffenheim
1.22.02.8
OFI Crete
0.10.81.6
Projected
OFI Crete 0.84 — TSG Hoffenheim 1.99
Actual
OFI Crete 2 — TSG Hoffenheim 0
Pick Results
OFI Crete +1.5spreadWIN+0.43u
Expected Goals (xG)
OFI Crete0.84
TSG Hoffenheim1.99
14.6Shots16.8
5.5On Target6.1
5.5Corners5.8
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.1%
Over 1.5
77.4%
Over 2.5
51.2%
Over 3.5
31.3%
Under 2.5
48.8%
BTTS
57.9%
Most Likely Scores
0-2
11.9%
0-1
11.1%
1-1
10.9%
1-2
10.0%
0-3
7.9%
Match Context
UELHigh
OFI Crete
10.18
Draw
5.53
TSG Hoffenheim
1.29
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Market already prices Hoffenheim higher (77.5% implied) than our model (65.5%) despite a 1.15 xG gap, so there's no exploitable edge and away ML sits in a a supportive track record historically mixed.
Key Factors
- xG gap 1.15 (1.99 vs 0.84) but market implied 77.5% exceeds model 65.5% by 12pp
- Away ML historically mixed at this edge/prob bucket: only a supportive track record
- Draw prob 19.9% still eats into any away ML value
Risk Factors
- Away ML historical support overall RED: a supportive track record
- High edge/prob picks historically underperform (15-25% edge bucket = a supportive track record)
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TSG Hoffenheim 65.5%
--
Total
2.8
+21.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.