FINAL: Celta Vigo 1 — Málaga 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Celta Vigo 1.34 - Málaga 1.46 (Málaga at 14.8% win probability). Expected total goals: 2.8..
Celta Vigo
1.34
Projected Goals
VS
2.8 total
Málaga
1.46
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Celta VigoDrawMálaga
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 87.4% (1,497 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Málaga
0.71.52.2
Celta Vigo
0.61.32.1
Projected
Celta Vigo 1.34 — Málaga 1.46
Actual
Celta Vigo 1 — Málaga 1
Pick Results
OVER 2.25totalLOSS-1.00u
Expected Goals (xG)
Celta Vigo1.34
Málaga1.46
16.3Shots16.6
5.9On Target6.0
5.7Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.0%
Over 1.5
77.1%
Over 2.5
51.6%
Over 3.5
31.1%
Under 2.5
48.4%
BTTS
57.7%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.6%
1-2
8.7%
0-1
8.3%
2-1
8.0%
1-0
7.6%
Match Context
LALMedium
Celta Vigo
11.00
Draw
1.07
Málaga
29.00
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Model gives a 72% draw probability and market prices draw at ~93% implied — both bottom-half LaLiga sides, no ML or total market to exploit (no total line offered).
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Málaga 14.8%
--
Total
2.8
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.