New York City FC vs Real Salt Lake prediction for September 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Real Salt Lake 1.68 - New York City FC 1.26. Real Salt Lake is favored with a 45.9% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.9..
Real Salt Lake
1.68
Projected Goals
VS
2.9 total
New York City FC
1.26
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Real Salt LakeDrawNew York City FC
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.5% (1,497 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
New York City FC
0.51.32.0
Real Salt Lake
0.91.72.5
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Salt Lake1.68
New York City FC1.26
19.1Shots15.9
6.9On Target5.7
6.0Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.3%
Over 1.5
79.4%
Over 2.5
54.8%
Over 3.5
33.6%
Under 2.5
45.2%
BTTS
59.3%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
8.1%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.1%
Match Context
MLSMedium
Real Salt Lake
2.08
Draw
3.53
New York City FC
3.71
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.