Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire prediction for October 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Chicago Fire 2.54 - Orlando City SC 1.55. Chicago Fire is favored with a 58.1% win probability. Expected total goals: 4.1..
Chicago Fire
2.54
Projected Goals
VS
4.1 total
Orlando City SC
1.55
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Chicago FireDrawOrlando City SC
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.6% (1,924 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Orlando City SC
0.81.62.3
Chicago Fire
1.82.53.3
Projected
Chicago Fire 2.54 — Orlando City SC 1.55
Actual
Chicago Fire 2 — Orlando City SC 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Chicago Fire2.54
Orlando City SC1.55
18.7Shots16.1
7.1On Target5.7
5.7Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
98.0%
Over 1.5
91.9%
Over 2.5
77.5%
Over 3.5
58.5%
Under 2.5
22.5%
BTTS
70.6%
Most Likely Scores
2-1
8.8%
3-1
7.5%
1-1
7.3%
2-2
6.8%
3-2
5.8%
Match Context
MLSMedium
Chicago Fire
1.54
Draw
5.28
Orlando City SC
5.02
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.