Toulouse vs Le Mans FC prediction for October 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Le Mans FC 1.37 - Toulouse 1.64. Toulouse is favored with a 43.3% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
Le Mans FC
1.37
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Toulouse
1.64
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Le Mans FCDrawToulouse
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 79.9% (1,644 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Toulouse
0.91.62.4
Le Mans FC
0.61.42.1
Expected Goals (xG)
Le Mans FC1.37
Toulouse1.64
17.3Shots18.1
6.3On Target6.7
5.8Corners5.8
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
94.6%
Over 1.5
80.7%
Over 2.5
57.9%
Over 3.5
35.5%
Under 2.5
42.1%
BTTS
35.4%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
7.7%
2-1
7.7%
0-2
6.7%
Match Context
LIGMedium
Le Mans FC
3.01
Draw
3.59
Toulouse
2.37
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.