Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund prediction for October 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Borussia Dortmund 2.14 - Werder Bremen 1.15. Borussia Dortmund is favored with a 61.5% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.3..
Borussia Dortmund
2.14
Projected Goals
VS
3.3 total
Werder Bremen
1.15
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Borussia DortmundDrawWerder Bremen
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 69.6% (1,621 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Werder Bremen
0.41.11.9
Borussia Dortmund
1.42.12.9
Projected
Borussia Dortmund 2.14 — Werder Bremen 1.15
Actual
Borussia Dortmund 2 — Werder Bremen 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Borussia Dortmund2.14
Werder Bremen1.15
16.0Shots14.7
6.1On Target5.1
5.6Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
94.7%
Over 1.5
83.6%
Over 2.5
62.2%
Over 3.5
45.2%
Under 2.5
37.8%
BTTS
53.4%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
10.6%
2-1
10.1%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
7.2%
1-0
7.0%
Match Context
BUNHigh
Borussia Dortmund
1.37
Draw
5.50
Werder Bremen
8.25
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.