Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction for October 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects FSV Mainz 05 2.02 - Werder Bremen 1.28. FSV Mainz 05 is favored with a 53.8% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.3..
FSV Mainz 05
2.02
Projected Goals
VS
3.3 total
Werder Bremen
1.28
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
FSV Mainz 05DrawWerder Bremen
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 67.3% (1,756 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Werder Bremen
0.51.32.1
FSV Mainz 05
1.22.02.8
Expected Goals (xG)
FSV Mainz 052.02
Werder Bremen1.28
17.8Shots15.8
6.5On Target5.6
5.8Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.1%
Over 1.5
85.4%
Over 2.5
64.1%
Over 3.5
42.0%
Under 2.5
35.9%
BTTS
65.3%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
6.6%
1-0
6.4%
Match Context
BUNMedium
FSV Mainz 05
1.75
Draw
4.18
Werder Bremen
4.44
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
More Projections Today
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.