Adrian Mannarino vs Jan Simonsson prediction for November 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation projects Jan Simonsson 0 - Adrian Mannarino 0. Adrian Mannarino is favored with a 97.3% win probability.
Jan Simonsson
1500
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Adrian Mannarino
1500
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Jan SimonssonAdrian Mannarino
Hard
Surface
Stockholm
Tournament
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 97.1% (9,799 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Stockholm
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Adrian Mannarino
Jan Simonsson
Adrian Mannarino leads by 0 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Adrian Mannarino SPW
63.1%
Below tour avg
Jan Simonsson SPW
63.4%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (0-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Jan Simonsson has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Adrian Mannarino at 97%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · ATP
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded TENNIS 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the TENNIS 2026 season report card.