Olle Wallin vs Lorenzo Sonego prediction for November 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation projects Lorenzo Sonego 0 - Olle Wallin 0. Lorenzo Sonego is favored with a 89.4% win probability.
Lorenzo Sonego
1785
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Olle Wallin
1527
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Lorenzo SonegoOlle Wallin
Hard
Surface
Stockholm
Tournament
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 90.2% (9,799 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Stockholm
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Olle Wallin
Lorenzo Sonego
Lorenzo Sonego leads by 258 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Olle Wallin SPW
62.8%
Below tour avg
Lorenzo Sonego SPW
65.6%
Above tour avg
● Lorenzo Sonego has a slight serve edge (+2.8%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Lorenzo Sonego holds a commanding 258-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Lorenzo Sonego has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Lorenzo Sonego at 89%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · ATP
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded TENNIS 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the TENNIS 2026 season report card.