Jacob Fearnley vs Arthur Nagel prediction for November 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation projects Arthur Nagel 0 - Jacob Fearnley 0. Jacob Fearnley is favored with a 90.8% win probability.
Arthur Nagel
1450
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Jacob Fearnley
1811
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Arthur NagelJacob Fearnley
Hard
Surface
Stockholm
Tournament
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 91.2% (9,799 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Stockholm
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Jacob Fearnley
Arthur Nagel
Jacob Fearnley leads by 361 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Jacob Fearnley SPW
60.9%
Below tour avg
Arthur Nagel SPW
59.2%
Below tour avg
● Jacob Fearnley has a slight serve edge (+1.7%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jacob Fearnley holds a commanding 361-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Jacob Fearnley has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Jacob Fearnley at 91%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · ATP
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
More Projections Today
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded TENNIS 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the TENNIS 2026 season report card.