Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Francesco Passaro prediction for November 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation projects Francesco Passaro 0 - Nikoloz Basilashvili 0. Nikoloz Basilashvili is favored with a 68.9% win probability.
Francesco Passaro
1715
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Nikoloz Basilashvili
1790
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Francesco PassaroNikoloz Basilashvili
Hard
Surface
Stockholm
Tournament
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 73.6% (9,799 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Stockholm
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Francesco Passaro
Nikoloz Basilashvili leads by 75 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Nikoloz Basilashvili SPW
65.2%
Above tour avg
Francesco Passaro SPW
65.6%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Nikoloz Basilashvili has a moderate 75-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Francesco Passaro has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Nikoloz Basilashvili at 69%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · ATP
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded TENNIS 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the TENNIS 2026 season report card.