Alexander Shevchenko vs Daniil Glinka prediction for October 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Daniil Glinka 0 - Alexander Shevchenko 0. Daniil Glinka is favored with a 53.1% win probability.
Daniil Glinka
1700
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Alexander Shevchenko
1759
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Daniil GlinkaAlexander Shevchenko
Hard
Surface
Almaty
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.2% (19,157 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Almaty
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Alexander Shevchenko
Daniil Glinka
Alexander Shevchenko leads by 60 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Alexander Shevchenko SPW
63.2%
Below tour avg
Daniil Glinka SPW
72.7%
Above tour avg
● Daniil Glinka has a significant serve advantage (+9.5%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Alexander Shevchenko has a moderate 60-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Daniil Glinka has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
More Projections Today
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded TENNIS 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the TENNIS 2026 season report card.