Clement Chidekh vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly prediction for October 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Gilles Arnaud Bailly 0 - Clement Chidekh 0. Clement Chidekh is favored with a 74.3% win probability.
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
1601
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Clement Chidekh
1719
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Gilles Arnaud BaillyClement Chidekh
Hard
Surface
Brussels
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 72.9% (19,157 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Brussels
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Clement Chidekh
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Clement Chidekh leads by 118 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Clement Chidekh SPW
63.9%
Above tour avg
Gilles Arnaud Bailly SPW
58.5%
Below tour avg
● Clement Chidekh has a significant serve advantage (+5.4%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Clement Chidekh holds a commanding 118-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Clement Chidekh has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Clement Chidekh at 74%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded TENNIS 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the TENNIS 2026 season report card.