Andres Andrade vs Aidan Mayo prediction for November 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation projects Aidan Mayo 0 - Andres Andrade 0. Aidan Mayo is favored with a 66.2% win probability.
Aidan Mayo
1649
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Andres Andrade
1729
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Aidan MayoAndres Andrade
Hard
Surface
ATP Challenger Charlottesville - SF
Tournament
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 72.4% (9,799 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Challenger Charlottesville - SF
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Andres Andrade
Aidan Mayo
Andres Andrade leads by 79 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Andres Andrade SPW
58.6%
Below tour avg
Aidan Mayo SPW
62.7%
Below tour avg
● Aidan Mayo has a significant serve advantage (+4.1%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Andres Andrade has a moderate 79-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Aidan Mayo has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Aidan Mayo at 66%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · ATP
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded TENNIS 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the TENNIS 2026 season report card.