Aziz Dougaz vs Tom Gentzsch prediction for October 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Tom Gentzsch 0 - Aziz Dougaz 0. Aziz Dougaz is favored with a 53.9% win probability.
Tom Gentzsch
1671
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Aziz Dougaz
1514
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Tom GentzschAziz Dougaz
Hard
Surface
Brussels
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.2% (19,157 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Brussels
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Aziz Dougaz
Tom Gentzsch
Tom Gentzsch leads by 157 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Aziz Dougaz SPW
65.2%
Above tour avg
Tom Gentzsch SPW
63.5%
Above tour avg
● Aziz Dougaz has a slight serve edge (+1.7%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Tom Gentzsch holds a commanding 157-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Aziz Dougaz has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded TENNIS 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the TENNIS 2026 season report card.