Bridgeman, Jacob vs McKibbin, Tom prediction for July 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects McKibbin, Tom 155 - Bridgeman, Jacob 100. Bridgeman, Jacob is favored with a 60.5% win probability. The spread is 0.65.
McKibbin, Tom
+0.25
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • The Open Championship
Bridgeman, Jacob
+0.90
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
McKibbin, TomBridgeman, Jacob
+115
Best Odds
+30.0%
Edge
2.0u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Bridgeman, Jacob
93100107
McKibbin, Tom
148155162
Tournament Context
Event
The Open Championship
Course
Royal Birkdale Golf Club
Field
156 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
71°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Bridgeman, Jacob
Strokes Gained
+0.90/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.350 SG adj
Expected Finish
100th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Bridgeman, Jacob
+0.90 SG
EF 100th
Skill Gap
+0.65 SG/round
meaningful edge for Bridgeman, Jacob
McKibbin, Tom
+0.25 SG
EF 155th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.5%
Books Say
46.5%
Edge
+30.0%
Bridgeman, Jacob vs McKibbin, Tom: Model gives Bridgeman, Jacob 60.5% win probability vs 46.5% implied (+30.0% edge). Skill advantage: +0.65 SG/round. Expected finish: 100.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Bridgeman, Jacob 60.5%
+30.0 pts
Spread
+0.7
+30.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →