Hillier, Daniel vs Herbert, Lucas prediction for July 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Herbert, Lucas 12 - Hillier, Daniel 113. Hillier, Daniel is favored with a 66.0% win probability. The spread is -0.01.
Herbert, Lucas
+0.27
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • The Open Championship
Hillier, Daniel
+0.27
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Herbert, LucasHillier, Daniel
-113
Best Odds
+24.5%
Edge
2.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hillier, Daniel
106113120
Herbert, Lucas
51219
Tournament Context
Event
The Open Championship
Course
Royal Birkdale Golf Club
Field
156 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
71°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Hillier, Daniel
Strokes Gained
+0.27/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.112 SG adj
Expected Finish
113th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Hillier, Daniel
+0.27 SG
EF 113th
Skill Gap
-0.01 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Herbert, Lucas
+0.27 SG
EF 12th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
66.0%
Books Say
53.0%
Edge
+24.5%
Hillier, Daniel vs Herbert, Lucas: Model gives Hillier, Daniel 66.0% win probability vs 53.1% implied (+24.5% edge). Expected finish: 113.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hillier, Daniel 66.0%
+24.5 pts
Spread
-0.0
+24.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →