Svensson, Jesper vs Du Plessis, Hennie prediction for July 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Du Plessis, Hennie 97 - Svensson, Jesper 118. Svensson, Jesper is favored with a 65.2% win probability. The spread is -0.13.
Du Plessis, Hennie
+0.07
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • The Open Championship
Svensson, Jesper
-0.06
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Du Plessis, HennieSvensson, Jesper
+104
Best Odds
+32.9%
Edge
2.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Svensson, Jesper
111118125
Du Plessis, Hennie
9097104
Tournament Context
Event
The Open Championship
Course
Royal Birkdale Golf Club
Field
156 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
71°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Svensson, Jesper
Strokes Gained
-0.06/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.045 SG adj
Expected Finish
118th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Svensson, Jesper
-0.06 SG
EF 118th
Skill Gap
-0.13 SG/round
tight edge for Du Plessis, Hennie
Du Plessis, Hennie
+0.07 SG
EF 97th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
65.2%
Books Say
49.0%
Edge
+32.9%
Svensson, Jesper vs Du Plessis, Hennie: Model gives Svensson, Jesper 65.2% win probability vs 49.0% implied (+32.9% edge). Skill advantage: -0.13 SG/round. Expected finish: 118.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Svensson, Jesper 65.2%
+32.9 pts
Spread
-0.1
+32.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →