Potgieter, Aldrich vs Schaper, Jayden prediction for July 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Schaper, Jayden 155 - Potgieter, Aldrich 126. Potgieter, Aldrich is favored with a 58.1% win probability. The spread is -0.13.
Schaper, Jayden
+0.24
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • The Open Championship
Potgieter, Aldrich
+0.11
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Schaper, JaydenPotgieter, Aldrich
+115
Best Odds
+24.8%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Potgieter, Aldrich
119126133
Schaper, Jayden
148155162
Tournament Context
Event
The Open Championship
Course
Royal Birkdale Golf Club
Field
156 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
71°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Potgieter, Aldrich
Strokes Gained
+0.11/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.538 SG adj
Expected Finish
126th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Potgieter, Aldrich
+0.11 SG
EF 126th
Skill Gap
-0.13 SG/round
tight edge for Schaper, Jayden
Schaper, Jayden
+0.24 SG
EF 155th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.1%
Books Say
46.5%
Edge
+24.8%
Potgieter, Aldrich vs Schaper, Jayden: Model gives Potgieter, Aldrich 58.1% win probability vs 46.5% implied (+24.8% edge). Skill advantage: -0.13 SG/round. Expected finish: 126.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Potgieter, Aldrich 58.1%
+24.8 pts
Spread
-0.1
+24.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →