PGA Tour Golf

Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus vs Detry, Thomas Prediction

July 14, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus vs Detry, Thomas prediction for July 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Detry, Thomas 41 - Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus 110. Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus is favored with a 62.5% win probability. The spread is -0.29.

Detry, Thomas
+0.50
Strokes Gained / Round
VS H2H • The Open Championship
Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus
+0.21
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
37.5%
62.5%
Detry, ThomasNeergaard-Petersen, Rasmus
+105
Best Odds
+28.1%
Edge
2.0u HIGH
Sizing
FINALDetry, Thomas (T12) def Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus (T22)

Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile

Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus
103110117
Detry, Thomas
344148

Tournament Context

Event
The Open Championship
Course
Royal Birkdale Golf Club
Field
156 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
78°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)

Player Profile — Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus

Strokes Gained
+0.21/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.044 SG adj
Expected Finish
110th / 156

Matchup Analysis

Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus
+0.21 SG
EF 110th
Skill Gap
-0.29 SG/round
tight edge for Detry, Thomas
Detry, Thomas
+0.50 SG
EF 41th · Above Avg

Edge Breakdown

Our Model
62.5%
Books Say
48.8%
Edge
+28.1%

Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus vs Detry, Thomas: Model gives Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus 62.5% win probability vs 48.8% implied (+28.1% edge). Skill advantage: -0.29 SG/round. Expected finish: 110.

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus 62.5%
+28.1 pts
Spread
-0.3
+28.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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