Ayora, Angel vs Puig, David prediction for July 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Puig, David 0 - Ayora, Angel 110. Ayora, Angel is favored with a 63.1% win probability. The spread is -0.17.
Puig, David
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • The Open Championship
Ayora, Angel
+0.49
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Puig, DavidAyora, Angel
-102
Best Odds
+25.0%
Edge
2.0u HIGH
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
The Open Championship
Course
Royal Birkdale Golf Club
Field
156 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
78°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)
Player Profile — Ayora, Angel
Strokes Gained
+0.49/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.238 SG adj
Expected Finish
110th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Ayora, Angel
+0.49 SG
EF 110th
Skill Gap
-0.17 SG/round
tight edge for Puig, David
Puig, David
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
63.1%
Books Say
50.5%
Edge
+25.0%
Ayora, Angel vs Puig, David: Model gives Ayora, Angel 63.1% win probability vs 50.5% implied (+25.0% edge). Skill advantage: -0.17 SG/round. Expected finish: 110.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ayora, Angel 63.1%
+25.0 pts
Spread
-0.2
+25.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Golf 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Golf 2026 season report card.