Berger, Daniel vs Woodland, Gary prediction for July 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Woodland, Gary 82 - Berger, Daniel 110. Berger, Daniel is favored with a 61.9% win probability. The spread is -0.19.
Woodland, Gary
+0.45
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • The Open Championship
Berger, Daniel
+0.45
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Woodland, GaryBerger, Daniel
+105
Best Odds
+27.0%
Edge
2.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Berger, Daniel
103110117
Woodland, Gary
758289
Tournament Context
Event
The Open Championship
Course
Royal Birkdale Golf Club
Field
156 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
78°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)
Player Profile — Berger, Daniel
Strokes Gained
+0.45/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.230 SG adj
Expected Finish
110th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Berger, Daniel
+0.45 SG
EF 110th
Skill Gap
-0.19 SG/round
tight edge for Woodland, Gary
Woodland, Gary
+0.45 SG
EF 82th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.9%
Books Say
48.8%
Edge
+27.0%
Berger, Daniel vs Woodland, Gary: Model gives Berger, Daniel 61.9% win probability vs 48.8% implied (+27.0% edge). Skill advantage: -0.19 SG/round. Expected finish: 110.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Berger, Daniel 61.9%
+27.0 pts
Spread
-0.2
+27.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Golf 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Golf 2026 season report card.