Jarvis, Casey vs Hojgaard, Rasmus prediction for July 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hojgaard, Rasmus 155 - Jarvis, Casey 104. Jarvis, Casey is favored with a 69.3% win probability. The spread is 0.06.
Hojgaard, Rasmus
+0.27
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • The Open Championship
Jarvis, Casey
+0.33
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hojgaard, RasmusJarvis, Casey
-123
Best Odds
+25.6%
Edge
2.0u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Jarvis, Casey
97104111
Hojgaard, Rasmus
148155162
Tournament Context
Event
The Open Championship
Course
Royal Birkdale Golf Club
Field
156 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
78°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)
Player Profile — Jarvis, Casey
Strokes Gained
+0.33/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.076 SG adj
Expected Finish
104th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Jarvis, Casey
+0.33 SG
EF 104th
Skill Gap
+0.06 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Hojgaard, Rasmus
+0.27 SG
EF 155th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
69.3%
Books Say
55.2%
Edge
+25.6%
Jarvis, Casey vs Hojgaard, Rasmus: Model gives Jarvis, Casey 69.3% win probability vs 55.2% implied (+25.6% edge). Expected finish: 104.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jarvis, Casey 69.3%
+25.6 pts
Spread
+0.1
+25.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →