Keefer, Johnny vs Poston, J.T. prediction for July 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Poston, J.T. 155 - Keefer, Johnny 109. Keefer, Johnny is favored with a 58.0% win probability. The spread is -0.27.
Poston, J.T.
+0.71
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • The Open Championship
Keefer, Johnny
+0.44
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Poston, J.T.Keefer, Johnny
+116
Best Odds
+25.3%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Keefer, Johnny
102109116
Poston, J.T.
148155162
Tournament Context
Event
The Open Championship
Course
Royal Birkdale Golf Club
Field
156 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
78°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)
Player Profile — Keefer, Johnny
Strokes Gained
+0.44/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.200 SG adj
Expected Finish
109th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Keefer, Johnny
+0.44 SG
EF 109th
Skill Gap
-0.27 SG/round
tight edge for Poston, J.T.
Poston, J.T.
+0.71 SG
EF 155th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.0%
Books Say
46.3%
Edge
+25.3%
Keefer, Johnny vs Poston, J.T.: Model gives Keefer, Johnny 58.0% win probability vs 46.3% implied (+25.3% edge). Skill advantage: -0.27 SG/round. Expected finish: 109.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Keefer, Johnny 58.0%
+25.3 pts
Spread
-0.3
+25.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →