Puig, David vs Chacarra, Eugenio prediction for July 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Chacarra, Eugenio 47 - Puig, David 108. Puig, David is favored with a 57.3% win probability. The spread is -0.08.
Chacarra, Eugenio
+0.73
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • The Open Championship
Puig, David
+0.66
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Chacarra, EugenioPuig, David
+120
Best Odds
+26.1%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Puig, David
101108115
Chacarra, Eugenio
404754
Tournament Context
Event
The Open Championship
Course
Royal Birkdale Golf Club
Field
156 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
78°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)
Player Profile — Puig, David
Strokes Gained
+0.66/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.384 SG adj
Expected Finish
108th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Puig, David
+0.66 SG
EF 108th
Skill Gap
-0.08 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Chacarra, Eugenio
+0.73 SG
EF 47th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.3%
Books Say
45.5%
Edge
+26.1%
Puig, David vs Chacarra, Eugenio: Model gives Puig, David 57.3% win probability vs 45.5% implied (+26.1% edge). Expected finish: 108.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Puig, David 57.3%
+26.1 pts
Spread
-0.1
+26.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →