ARI vs HOU prediction for September 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 5.6 - ARI 4.9. HOU is favored with a 58.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.5 total runs.
HOU
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
ARI
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUARI
-1.5
Run Line (HOU)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.9% (3,723 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
357
HOU
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Merrill Kelly R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH28%88 mph29% whiff
FF28%92 mph11% whiff
FC13%91 mph11% whiff
Cristian Javier R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF49%93 mph23% whiff
ST25%81 mph37% whiff
CH16%86 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Daikin Park
84°F2 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.038 Total: 1.019
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.31ERA
3.55FIP
7.90K/9
3.02BB/9
1.15WHIP
HOU
3.47ERA
3.95FIP
9.27K/9
3.59BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
2.7 runs
33.7% win
HOU F5
3.6 runs
54.2% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
46.7%
YRFI
53.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.27
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Zac Gallen SP60-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Thompson RP60-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU5 injured
Steven Okert RP15-DAY-IL
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.