ARI vs HOU prediction for September 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 4.2 - ARI 5.0. ARI is favored with a 57.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
HOU
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
ARI
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUARI
-1.5
Run Line (HOU)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.1% (3,747 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
357
HOU
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Pfaadt R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%93 mph11% whiff
SI17%93 mph8% whiff
CH17%87 mph23% whiff
Ethan Pecko R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI28%93 mph22% whiff
FF23%94 mph22% whiff
ST16%83 mph42% whiff
Weather Impact
Daikin Park
85°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.046 Total: 1.024
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.30ERA
3.54FIP
7.91K/9
3.01BB/9
1.15WHIP
HOU
3.45ERA
3.95FIP
9.26K/9
3.63BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
2.9 runs
49.2% win
HOU F5
2.3 runs
36.3% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
49.0%
YRFI
51.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.13
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Zac Gallen SP60-DAY-IL
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Thompson RP60-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU5 injured
Steven Okert RP15-DAY-IL
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.