FINAL: SD 9 — ARI 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SD 3.7 - ARI 4.2 (ARI at 56.8% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
SD
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
ARI
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDARI
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
ARISD W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.4% (4,039 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
246
SD
246
Projected
SD 3.7 — ARI 4.2
Actual
SD 9 — ARI 4
Pick Results
SD F5 MLf5_mlWIN+0.32u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael Soroka R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SV32%81 mph35% whiff
FF32%94 mph14% whiff
CH12%86 mph18% whiff
Randy Vásquez R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%95 mph17% whiff
FC24%91 mph19% whiff
SI17%95 mph7% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
81°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.016 Total: 1.007
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.27ERA
3.51FIP
8.06K/9
2.93BB/9
1.14WHIP
SD
2.84ERA
3.52FIP
9.80K/9
3.90BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
NRFI YRFI
-12.7% EV
-114
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+9.8% EV
-110
F5_ML AWAY
-9.0% EV
-149
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-6.3% EV
+111
F5 UNDER 4.5
+3.4% EV
-115
ML AWAY
-3.0% EV
-152
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
2.2 runs
43.8% win
SD F5
2.0 runs
38.7% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
55.8%
YRFI
44.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Corbin Carroll ARI24.5%
ISO: 0.221 | Barrel: 11.4% | vs Randy Vásquez | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Lars Nootbaar ARI22.6%
ISO: 0.155 | Barrel: 7.1% | vs Randy Vásquez | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Manny Machado SD21.7%
ISO: 0.196 | Barrel: 11.0% | vs Michael Soroka | Park: 0.90x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael Soroka
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Randy Vásquez
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI6 injured
Corbin Burnes SP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Locklear 1B60-DAY-IL
Ryan Thompson RP60-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Andrew Saalfrank RP60-DAY-IL
Cristian Mena RP60-DAY-IL
SD8 injured
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Laureano LF60-DAY-IL
Luis Rengifo LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ARI 56.8%
+1.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+1.2 pts
Total
8.0
+9.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.