ARI vs STL prediction for June 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 4.9 - ARI 4.1. STL is favored with a 59.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.0 total runs.
STL
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
ARI
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLARI
-1.5
Run Line (STL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.1% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
246
STL
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zac Gallen R
ARI
FF37%94 mph6% whiff
SL22%89 mph30% whiff
KC19%82 mph22% whiff
Michael McGreevy R
STL
FF25%92 mph11% whiff
CH21%87 mph28% whiff
SI17%90 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
87°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.071 Total: 1.038
thin air, 5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-43.8% EV
-182
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-16.3% EV
-102
F5_ML AWAY
-15.4% EV
+112
ML AWAY
-11.9% EV
+112
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-8.2% EV
-120
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+3.7% EV
+150
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
2.1 runs
32.8% win
STL F5
2.9 runs
52.5% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
50.9%
YRFI
49.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
9%
Corbin Carroll ARI30.0%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Michael McGreevy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Max Kepler ARI30.0%
ISO: 0.107 | Barrel: 10.7% | vs Michael McGreevy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.236 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Zac Gallen | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zac Gallen
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Michael McGreevy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Juan Centeno CDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
James McCann C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL8 injured
Bryan Torres LFDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Fernandez RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE57.1% WR (n=8)
Michael McGreevy (3.62 ERA, 16.6% K rate) has clear advantage over Zac Gallen (6.59 ERA, 13.5% K rate) at home. STL -131 (56.8% implied) offers fair value for a team with pitcher advantage, home field, and warm weather environment. Model edge +2.9% is modest but actionable at these odds.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: McGreevy 3.62 ERA vs Gallen 6.59 ERA (+2.97 ERA advantage STL)
- K-rate edge: McGreevy 16.6% vs Gallen 13.5% (+3.1 K-rate advantage)
- Home field: STL at home in 0-5% edge zone with 57.1% WR (small n=8), combo GREEN zone 58.0%
- Warm environment: 87.4°F + thin air (2,025 ft) + weather mult 1.038 favors high-scoring game
Risk Factors
- Edge is only +1.6% (small) — warrants reduced unit (0.75x recommended)
- Gallen's recent poor performance could represent regression risk or structural weakness; limited sample verification
- Kepler's activation to ARI lineup could elevate offensive production, offsetting pitching disadvantage
PITCHER MISMATCHDIRECTION CONFIRMED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 59.3%
+3.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+3.7 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →