ARI vs TB prediction for June 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 4.5 - ARI 4.7. TB is favored with a 51.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
TB
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
ARI
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBARI
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
357
TB
346
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zac Gallen R
ARI
FF37%94 mph6% whiff
SL22%89 mph30% whiff
KC19%82 mph22% whiff
Nick Martinez R
TB
SI30%92 mph7% whiff
CH28%78 mph32% whiff
FC20%89 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
86°F11 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-35.1% EV
-185
ML HOME
-9.8% EV
-139
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-9.1% EV
+152
F5_ML AWAY
-7.1% EV
+114
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-6.4% EV
-108
F5_ML HOME
-3.8% EV
-143
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
2.2 runs
36.6% win
TB F5
2.7 runs
48.0% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
56.5%
YRFI
43.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Junior Caminero TB29.5%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Zac Gallen | Park: 0.92x
Jonathan Aranda TB28.2%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Zac Gallen | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Corbin Carroll ARI27.6%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zac Gallen
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Nick Martinez
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Juan Centeno CDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
James McCann C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Luis Guerrero RPDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
Tre' Morgan 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Davidson 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE41.1% WR (n=11)
Even SP quality (Martinez 5.4 K/9, Gallen 6.0 K/9), model essentially coin flip. Away ML edge 3.7% is marginal (41% historical WR on away unders in RED zone). NRFI edge 2.7% cleaner signal. No strong directional conviction.
Key Factors
- SP MATCHED: Martinez (5.4 K/9, B- grade) vs Gallen (6.0 K/9, C grade) — 0.6 K/9 gap negligible
- Model near-coin flip (51.5% home, 48.5% away) — no clear favorite
- Away ML edge 3.7% at 47.6% model prob — marginal signal, falls into RED ZONE (41.1% historical WR)
- Market home ML -138 (58% implied) vs model 52.4% = 5.6pt gap favoring home — market possibly overpricing home
- NRFI edge 2.7% at 54.1% model prob — potentially cleaner signal than directional ML
Risk Factors
- Away ML in RED zone historically (41.1% WR) — suggests model may be overestimating away edge
- Market heavy -138 pricing suggests sharp/public consensus on home; fighting market on close game risky
EVEN MATCHUPRED ZONE AWAYMARKET HOME BIASNRFI BETTER ANGLE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 51.5%
-9.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-9.1 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →